Professional gamblers will never tell you this - so I will. They never gamble. You will never catch one red-handed putting twenty quid on Forest Green Rovers to win at Oxford United on the off-chance it may happen. They play percentages and they play because they're sure of winning with good odds.
Horse racing has been sullied by a number of scandals lately - most notorious was that of Keiron Fallon, whose attempt to throw a race was a disgrace of the highest order. But we see a lot of that with the lower-class races, where winnings can be as low as a few hundred pounds. Personally, I never bet on these races, where absolutely anything can happen, from maidens to sellers.
I do, however, focus on two races per year - and make sure that I am armed to the teeth with information about my shortlisted horses. How do I get to a shortlist?
First of all, there's the Grand National at Aintree, run every April. I open an account with a bookie, get a free bet in the bargain and make sure that I've got the best possible odds for the horse I want. This often means getting in early, so ante-post betting is the norm. Usually in February, the bookies will publish odds on the Grand National after the initial list of about 100 runners is produced. Here's what I do to find my bet:
1. I look for horses between 9 and 11 - preferably 9 or 10. 2. I forget about horses with more than 11 stone on their backs. 3. I eliminate any horses that have not run at Aintree before - and favour any horse that has won at Aintree - at this distance, preferably.
It doesn't always work - Hedgehunter is an exception to my rule having won at over 11 stone, but sometimes you have to look beyond the list to find the right horse. The Grand National is NOT the lottery people say it is so do not pick with a pin and do not just go with what you got in the office sweepstake. You can find yourself at least a very good each-way bet if you shortlist yourself five or six decent horses.
Now, having spent ten years in France, my other favourite is the Prix de l'Arc at Longchamp. It is also France's most consistent arce - and I still believe that Dylan Thomas was an exception to a very consistent rule. Here's how I find a winner:
1. Look for a horse trained in France 2. Look for a horse that has won the Prix Niel in September 3. Look for a 3-year-old with five or six runs under its belt 4. Look for a horse that knows (and knows how to win at) Longchamp 5. Don't pick a Derby winner
Now the Arc is a peculiar race for many reasons. Many trainers take a horse there after a long season and think that they can win simply on form - but this really is a late race and many horses are best at the start or in the middle of the season. Hence the "lightly run" factor. Derby winners come early in the season and very rarely adapt to Longchamp.
The racecourse of Longchamp is very specific and you must consider the wide bend and the long straight which can tire out the best horses. So you can use this method and come up with two or three horses - look at their form to separate them. That is how I came up with Hurricane Run, Rail Link, Sagamix, Sakhee, and so many others over the last ten years.
So by studying the past and projecting it into the future, you know that you can play percentages and start winning some serious money. Not every time - but most times. And then you'll be gambling like a pro!
About the Author:
Before you open an account with a bookie and get yourself a free bet, make sure you read up on each bookie and the potential catches to their promotions from the Free Bet Bookmaker.
